Asthma management involves achieving and maintaining current
asthma control and preventing exacerbations. Reports have shown, however, that
there can be a disassociation between these two goals, meaning control may be
achieved but risk of exacerbations may remain, or the opposite. The
identification of patients at risk of future severe exacerbations, whose asthma
might be less treatment-responsive, or both could focus treatment selection. To
this end, Bateman et al have
developed a simple risk score for exacerbations (RSE) for clinical use (J Allergy Clin Immunol 2015; 135(6): 1457-64).
The authors analyzed a large data set of patients enrolled
in studies comparing the efficacy of budesonide-formoterol (BUD/FORM)
maintenance and reliever therapy with fixed-dose inhaled
corticosteroid/long-acting β2-agonist
(ICS/LABA) therapy. They included patients whose symptoms were not controlled
on Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) treatment steps 3 and 4 and who had
experienced 1 or more exacerbations in the previous year. Using multivariate
analysis, they found 4 dominant (all P
<.001) predictors for both the risk of uncontrolled asthma and severe
exacerbations: GINA step, reliever use, postbronchodilator FEV1, and
5-item Asthma Control Questionnaire score. Smoking status and asthma symptom
scores were additional predictors for uncontrolled asthma, and body mass index
was a fifth predictor for severe exacerbation.
Bateman et al show
risk of uncontrolled asthma at 3 months of treatment and a severe exacerbation
within 12 months can be estimated from simple clinical assessments. The
prediction of treatment outcome could be particularly useful for patients
similar to those in the current analysis, all of whom were receiving
moderate-to-high ICS doses and 52% of whom were receiving LABAs and who had
experienced at least 1 recent exacerbation, as it could identify patients who
might benefit from intensified or alternative therapeutic measures.