Development and validation of a novel risk score for asthma exacerbations: The risk score for exacerbations

Asthma management involves achieving and maintaining current asthma control and preventing exacerbations. Reports have shown, however, that there can be a disassociation between these two goals, meaning control may be achieved but risk of exacerbations may remain, or the opposite. The identification of patients at risk of future severe exacerbations, whose asthma might be less treatment-responsive, or both could focus treatment selection. To this end, Bateman et al have developed a simple risk score for exacerbations (RSE) for clinical use (J Allergy Clin Immunol 2015; 135(6): 1457-64).

The authors analyzed a large data set of patients enrolled in studies comparing the efficacy of budesonide-formoterol (BUD/FORM) maintenance and reliever therapy with fixed-dose inhaled corticosteroid/long-acting β₂-agonist (ICS/LABA) therapy. They included patients whose symptoms were not controlled on Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) treatment steps 3 and 4 and who had experienced 1 or more exacerbations in the previous year. Using multivariate analysis, they found 4 dominant (all P <.001) predictors for both the risk of uncontrolled asthma and severe exacerbations: GINA step, reliever use, postbronchodilator FEV₁, and 5-item Asthma Control Questionnaire score. Smoking status and asthma symptom scores were additional predictors for uncontrolled asthma, and body mass index was a fifth predictor for severe exacerbation.

Bateman et al show risk of uncontrolled asthma at 3 months of treatment and a severe exacerbation within 12 months can be estimated from simple clinical assessments. The prediction of treatment outcome could be particularly useful for patients similar to those in the current analysis, all of whom were receiving moderate-to-high ICS doses and 52% of whom were receiving LABAs and who had experienced at least 1 recent exacerbation, as it could identify patients who might benefit from intensified or alternative therapeutic measures.